Oil prices are falling, what do you think?

Recently, international oil prices have fallen for weeks. Taking the crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange as an example, the international oil price has fallen from about US $65 per barrel in January to around US $22 per barrel, and the range fluctuation has also increased significantly. In China, the National Development and Reform Commission has correspondingly lowered domestic refined oil prices.

What is the impact of the drop in oil prices on domestic enterprises in related industries? How do residents view the drop in oil prices? The author conducted an interview.

Refined oil returns to the "5 yuan era"

Lower transportation costs

Since March 17, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 1015 yuan and 975 yuan per ton respectively. From the national average, 92 gasoline is reduced by 0.80 yuan per liter, 95 gasoline by 0.84 yuan per liter, and 0 diesel by 0.83 yuan per liter. The domestic oil prices hit 12 years of big decline, back to the "5 yuan era".

Chen Ge, an office worker in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, likes to travel by car and is more concerned about oil prices. Oil prices have fallen. Chen Ge believes that low oil prices can save a considerable amount of expenses for transportation and logistics and stimulate his desire to travel. "Staying at home for several months, especially want to go out to travel, such as the May Day holiday I will go out to play on my own, the recent oil prices are cheap, the holiday high-speed and toll-free, after the epidemic stabilizes can go out for a walk."

"Due to work needs, I have to run 120-130 kilometers every day and use a tank of oil a week." Cao Zhiyuan, 50, is the boss of a private enterprise in the financial field in Guilin, Guangxi. This price adjustment has saved him a lot of oil money. He calculated the account for the author: "it turned out that it cost me nearly 500 yuan to fill up a tank of oil, but now it is less than 400 yuan. The expenditure has been reduced by about 15%, which is a great benefit for us car owners."

In addition to private car owners, truck drivers are more motivated to run transportation. Wen Kai in Kunming, Yunnan, a construction site to do concrete transportation work, low oil prices greatly saved his transportation costs. "Now our side of the gas price has been low to 4 yuan more than a liter, my truck tank capacity has more than 200 liters, add a tank of gas compared to the previous 6.5 yuan per liter when can save about 400 yuan! Now every time I go to the gas station will fill up the gas. When the amount of work, I have to add gas twice a day, plus the epidemic prevention and control period free vehicle tolls, so a calculation can save nearly a thousand dollars!" Wenkai said happily.

Zhengzhou City, a logistics company responsible person said, oil expenses accounted for a large proportion of the company's logistics fleet costs, oil prices fell, help the company to further reduce costs and efficiency, focus on the main business, the entire logistics industry to resume production will also play a role in boosting.

Dong Xiucheng, director of the Belt and Road Energy Trade and Development Research Center of the University of International Business and Economics, said that the decline in refined oil prices directly affects the transportation industry. Consumers can buy oil at cheaper prices, and companies have greater profit margins.

"Lower gasoline and diesel prices will have a greater impact on the highway sector, and cost reductions will create a certain substitute for rail, water and aviation, stimulating demand in the automotive sector. The main business costs of airlines are mostly fuel, and once prices are lowered, the main business costs of each airline will also be significantly reduced, thereby increasing net profit." Dong Xiucheng said that in the epidemic prevention and control stage, the decline in oil prices is more good than harm.

New energy vehicle promotion meets challenges

The long-term trend is still optimistic

Most residents welcome the reduction in oil prices, but in the opinion of experts, oil prices are too low, there are advantages and disadvantages.

Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced that if the oil price is too high, it will increase the burden on the oil industry and consumers, and affect the smooth operation of the national economy; if it is too low, it may affect the normal development of the domestic crude oil extraction industry and weaken self-sufficiency. In the long run, it is not conducive to ensuring domestic energy security. Dong Xiucheng analyzed that the drop in oil prices has reduced travel and production costs, which is conducive to accelerating the recovery of national production and life and economic recovery, but it will also inhibit the development of other energy industries and is not conducive to the adjustment of energy structure.

The new energy vehicle industry has felt the pressure of falling oil prices.

"I have two cars at home, a fuel car and a new energy car. It's much cheaper to fill up now, so I'm more inclined to drive a fuel car to work." Li Qian, who lives in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, believes that because there are more supporting facilities such as gas stations, the service is more considerate. This time the price of refined oil has fallen, which has brought greater challenges to the new energy automobile industry that has not been promoted.

Ren Jia, who majored in environmental law in Shanghai, is usually very concerned about the energy industry. Ren Jia said that he wants to buy new energy vehicles more, not only because of car purchase subsidies, but also because clean energy vehicles are in line with his own environmental protection concept, and the energy-saving and emission-reducing travel mode is healthier and greener. "The drop in fuel prices is obviously good for the traditional fuel vehicle industry, but it is not good news for new energy vehicles, because of the decline of new energy subsidy policies, the insufficient construction of charging piles and maintenance service outlets in small and medium-sized cities, and more consumers May be in the arms of fuel vehicles."

However, many consumers believe that the long-term trend of green energy will not change. "Low oil prices are temporary, and the development of the new energy industry is policy-oriented and the general trend." Ms. Wu, who lives in Shanghai, has just bought a new energy car. She said that Shanghai's fuel vehicle license plates are auctioned and cost about 100000 yuan, but there are not so many restrictions on new energy vehicles. "The price reduction of refined oil products will also cause price competition for new energy vehicles, and there are many potential benefits for our consumers who need to buy cars. Even if the price of oil is low, charging is always cheaper, about 100 yuan a month, I can save more than 8000 yuan a year!" Ms. Wu said.

It is worth noting that on February 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidance on the Orderly Promotion of the Resumption of Work and Production of Industrial Communications Enterprises", proposing that all localities should actively stabilize traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles, and encourage automobile purchase restriction areas to appropriately increase the quota of automobile license plates to drive the consumption of automobiles and related products. The executive meeting of the State Council held on March 31 decided to extend the subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles and the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax due at the end of the year for two years.

"In the short term, when new energy vehicles are just a simple power system replacement, the price of crude oil will fall, and the cost of fuel vehicles will decrease accordingly. The economy of new energy vehicles will be relatively weakened, which may have a certain impact on the sales of new energy vehicles. influences. But in the long run, the core driving factor for new energy vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles has changed from saving travel costs in the past to the development of intelligent vehicles. Therefore, the sharp drop in crude oil will not change the development trend of this industry." Ping An Fund equity fund manager Liu Junting said.

Energy and chemical upstream enterprises under pressure

Downstream enterprises benefit

In addition to being an important energy source, oil is also a basic chemical raw material. Industry insiders pointed out that during the epidemic, refining high oil hoarding and the impact of the previous shutdown has not been eliminated for the time being, the benefits of low-cost oil has a certain lag, has not yet been fully reflected in production. The petroleum refining, rubber, plastics, pharmaceutical and other industries that use petroleum as chemical raw materials will benefit from lower raw material costs.

"Our pharmaceutical industry produces pharmaceuticals, and chemical products are important raw materials. As crude oil prices go down and the prices of chemical products fall, the cost of producing chemical APIs should be reduced for some time and gross margins will increase, which will be good for our pharmaceutical industry." When talking about the future of the industry, Mr. Wu, a practitioner in the pharmaceutical industry, said that in the long run, the continued downturn in the crude oil market will have a certain impact on upstream companies in the oil industry, and it is good news for downstream companies.

Su Dong, executive vice president of Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, said that crude oil is an important raw material for production and consumption in China, and the reduction in crude oil prices will reduce the production costs of downstream petrochemical enterprises. "With China's vigorous development of new energy, clean energy and the gradual increase in the proportion of coal chemical products, the degree of dependence on oil is slowly decreasing." Su Dong said.

In terms of coal enterprises, Li Xiyong, chairman of Yanzhou Coal Industry, said that the low oil price of about $20 has not affected the coal industry at present, and the key depends on the duration of the low oil price. If the time is short, it will not have an impact on the coal industry. In the medium term, it will have a certain correlation. If it lasts for a long time, it will have an impact on the coal industry. However, it is estimated that the low oil price is phased. Li Xiyong believes that the current relationship between coal supply and demand remains basically balanced, and the benchmark price policy of the long-term thermal coal association remains stable. It is expected that there will be no major fluctuations in the thermal coal market.

"In 2020, Yanzhou Coal will rationally adjust its industrial structure, extend the high-end fine coal chemical industry chain, and promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries such as power and manufacturing. At the same time, around the main coal industry, timely implementation of strategic investment, mergers and acquisitions, opportunistic divestiture and adjustment of industries that do not conform to the strategic development direction and do not have competitive advantages, and continue to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises." Li Xiyong said when talking about development ideas.

Liu Guizhou, Dou Lirong and other scholars from the PetroChina International expert Center suggested that in the face of low oil prices, the investment of relevant enterprises should not be carried out step by step, and appropriate adjustments should be made. On the one hand, the reduction of investment should take full account of the forecast of full-year profitability and the current affordability of the enterprise. On the other hand, we will adjust the direction and tilt the part that can be invested or not from the loss-making area to the profitable area in the future. We will focus on the future long-term investment and make appropriate reduction, while strictly controlling and reducing non-production investment.